Scenario Planning
April
2008

Compiled by the Severson National Information Center, Alliance for Children and Families, 11700 W. Lake Park Drive, Milwaukee, WI 53224. Phone: 414-359-1040 or 800-221-3726, extension 3615; Fax: 414-359-1074; E-mail: severson@alliance1.org.  Single copies of articles not available on the Internet may be requested for personal use with this online order form. You may also print a .PDF of the this bibliography here.



ARTICLES
Single copies of articles not available on the Internet may be requested for personal use with this online order form.

Fundraising: Scenario Planning for Your Organization.
Mal Warwick. NonProfit Times, June and August 2006. #12646
Scenario planning is not an exercise in figuring out what's most likely to happen five years from now, or 10 or 20. Scenario planning is a strategic planning method expressly developed to test the viability of alternative strategies.

Narrating the Vision: Scenarios in Action.
Robert E. Neilson and Debra Stouffer. The Futurist, 39:3. May-June 2005. #10355
Scenarios - stories about the future - are important forecasting tools for organizations. Two business consultants illustrate how scenarios foster strategic thinking, learning, and communication and how they can be used to develop plans, mitigate uncertainty, and guard against potential problems.

Scenario Planning: An Introduction.
2005. #7398
Best practices for scenario planning.

Scenario Planning: Opportunities and Threats
2004. #7373
18 important points to consider when looking at scenario planning.

INTERNET RESOURCES

Scanning the Horizon: Trends, Developments & Innovations Impacting the Future of Child and Family Services.
Patrice Heinz. Alliance for Children and Families. 2006.
Offers a comprehensive review of emerging factors likely to alter how nonprofits conduct business in the future.
Link.

Scenario-Based Decision Making – Technique.
2000. Dr. Terry J. van der Werff.
Scenario sketching is a creative technique for decision making and should be in every manager's toolkit.
Link.

Scenario Planning Regional Results: a briefing report.
2006. Patrice Heinz. Alliance for Children and Families. 2006. #12472
Summarizes the five scenario planning meetings held around the country by the Alliance for Children and Families in 2005, and introduces the 19 scenarios participants developed. Includes indicators to watch.
Link.

Scenario Planning Resources.
December 3, 2007.
Contains references about scenario planning.
Link.

Spinning the Future.
Joe Flower. 1997
Spinning scenarios is a highly sophisticated, singularly useful, and imminently practical way to think about the future. Includes 8 steps to guide you when scenario planning.
Link.

What if?
2000. Dr. Terry J. van der Werff.
Scenario planning is a valuable technique for leading your company in the face of an uncertain future.
Link.


BOOKS

Art Of The Long View: Paths To Strategic Insight For Yourself And Your Company.
Peter Schwartz. Doubleday, Reprint edition, 1996.
Classic book in the field: helpful exploration of how to go beyond "forecasting" the future to "preparing" for it; using future scenarios to make better current decisions. Review and order book here.
 
Scenario-Planning Handbook: A Practitioner's Guide To Developing and Using Scenarios To Direct Strategy in Today's Uncertain Times.
Bill Ralston and Ian Wilson. Thomson/South-Western, 2006.
Comprehensive guide on how to use scenarios in a corporate setting for maximum advantage. Defines and explains various approaches to scenario planning in rigorous detail, but also features good information on scenarios generally. It includes real-world case studies of scenarios in action at firms such as Nokia and Royal Dutch Shell, which was instrumental in the popularization of the SRI model. Also describes how to use scenarios to create a "change-oriented culture" within an organization. Review and order book here.
 

(c) 2008 - Alliance for Children and Families: www.alliance1.org